9 DAYS AGO • 7 MIN READ

🏈Playoff Football, Data Quantified

profile

Advanced Sports Betting Analytics

Subscribe to our email list and stay ahead of the game with cutting-edge analytics, insider trends, and actionable stats you won’t find anywhere else.

StatSharp Betting Insights

The deeper the postseason goes, the more the data matters. This week’s StatSharp issue breaks down the NFL Divisional Round and the College Football Playoff Championship Game using advanced simulations, power ratings, and playoff-specific betting systems designed to measure how teams adapt when the margin for error disappears. As game plans tighten and pricing becomes sharper, we focus on efficiency, matchup leverage, and historical postseason response patterns that often separate perception from reality. In addition, StatSharp Pro subscribers gain access to two major platform upgrades—expanded basketball team game logs and new NHL player prop analytics—further extending our data-driven edge across the winter sports calendar.

📣StatSharp Releases New Subscriber Features!

Winter sports betting is where preparation separates winners from the rest of the market. With NBA, college basketball, and NHL all in full swing, bettors are forced to process more games, more lines, and more betting markets than at any other time of the year. That is exactly why StatSharp Version 1.15 was released— to give sharp bettors deeper, cleaner, and more actionable data where sportsbooks are most vulnerable.

StatSharp’s latest release delivers two massive upgrades that fundamentally change how basketball and hockey bettors analyze games and attack the market: expanded basketball team game results and schedule logs, and the all-new NHL Player Prop Stats and Betting Records platform. Together, these features provide an unmatched level of betting transparency, historical depth, and situational insight.

  • Expanded Basketball Team Game Results and Schedule Logs (NBA and College Basketball)
  • NHL Player Prop Stats and Betting Records

Turn Information Into Betting Intelligence

StatSharp Pro delivers advanced data, simulations, power ratings, and trends designed to help you understand the why behind the numbers. It’s built for bettors who value insight, context, and smarter analysis—not picks or promises—so you can approach every game with greater clarity and confidence in your own research.

Sign up today!

🏈⭑Simulation & Ratings Spotlight

  • Key Weekend Matchups

StatSharp has run the Game Simulation and Power Rating models for some of this weekend’s biggest matchups for NFL matchups. Below are the projected scores, betting lines, and edges our models highlight for key games on the slate.

LA Rams at Chicago
Sunday · 6:30 PM · NFL Divisional Round
Projected Score: LA Rams 32 · Chicago 26
Proj. Total: 58 points (above market 48.5 by +9.5)
Spread (market): Rams -3.5
ATS Edge: Rams (+2.5) vs the number
Takeaway: The model projects the Rams to win by more than one score behind a balanced, high-efficiency output that keeps Chicago in chase mode for most of the game.
1H Line (market): Rams -2 · 1H Total 24.5
Proj. 1H Score: Rams 12 · Bears 12 (Total 24)
1H ATS Edge: Bears (+2) vs implied spread
1H Total Edge: Slight Under lean (proj 24 vs 24.5 by -0.5)
Key Stat Observations:
Rushing: LAR 28–136 (4.9 YPC) · CHI 29–154 (5.4 YPC)
Passing: LAR 34–267 (7.8 YPA) · CHI 35–231 (6.7 YPA)
Total Plays/Yards: LAR 62–403 · CHI 63–385 (Rams +18 yards on similar volume)
Yards/Play: LAR 6.5 · CHI 6.1 (efficiency edge Rams)
Turnovers: LAR 1–1 · CHI 1–1 (neutral turnover projection)
Game Flow: Both teams are projected to run the ball effectively, but the Rams’ passing efficiency and total explosiveness push the overall scoring environment well above the market total.
Simulation Edge Summary:
The simulation projects a high-scoring environment with the Rams creating the higher-value plays through the air. Rams QB Matthew Stafford is modeled for a strong efficiency day (7.8 YPA) with WR Puka Nacua as a key chain-mover in a passing attack projected for 267 yards. On the ground, RB Kyren Williams supports a steady run profile (28–136) that keeps Los Angeles ahead of the sticks and improves red-zone finish rates. Chicago’s offense is projected to move the ball as well—Chicago QB Caleb Williams generates volume (35–231), while RB D'Andre Swift fuels an efficient rushing output (29–154)—but the model still favors the Rams’ overall explosiveness and per-play edge (6.5 YPP) to win and cover, lifting the projection to LAR 32–26 and pushing the total well above the posted number. *** Be sure to check the latest weather conditions on the StatSharp Tip Sheet as cold, windy weather is expected at Soldier field Sunday. ***

Buffalo at Denver
Saturday · 4:30 PM · AFC Divisional Playoff
Projection: Buffalo 22, Denver 21
Power Ratings (Off/Def): BUF OffR 31 · DefR 7  |  DEN OffR 27 · DefR 8
Line: Denver -1.5
Cover%: BUF 57.9% · DEN 42.1%
ATS Edge: Buffalo (+2.5)
ML: BUF +100 (53.3%) · DEN -120 (46.7%)
ML Edge: Buffalo (+3.3%)
O/U: 45.5 · Over 46.0% · Under 54.0%
O/U Edge: Under (+2.5)
Team Totals: Buffalo 23.5 (Under lean) · Denver 23.5 (Under lean)
Game Read: The power rating model projects a tight, playoff-style contest where Buffalo’s offensive ceiling—driven by QB Josh Allen—slightly outweighs Denver’s efficiency profile. Under coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are modeled to lean on controlled aggression and situational execution, keeping scoring in check despite a strong offensive rating. On the other side, Denver QB Bo Nix is projected to manage the game effectively, but with a lower offensive rating and narrower margin for error against a top-tier Buffalo defense. Net result: a one-possession game that favors Buffalo against the spread and points toward the Under in a disciplined, postseason environment.

The StatSharp Game Simulation and Power Rating Model are just two of the many exclusive tools included with a StatSharp Pro subscription. From advanced matchup simulators and player prop records to betting system trends and team stat breakdowns, StatSharp Pro gives you the data edge to make smarter, sharper wagers. Don’t just guess — become a Sharper bettor with the full power of StatSharp at your fingertips.

📒Profitable Trend & System Report

🧩 Familiar Opponents Reinforce the Under

Defensive Focus doesn't change with one game.

Bet under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games. Record: 34-10 (77%) since 1983!

When a team dramatically underperforms the posted total in one game, the next-week response is often driven by continuity rather than correction—especially against familiar, in-conference opponents. Extreme Unders are rarely flukes; they tend to expose matchup realities such as defensive strength, tempo control, and game-planning tendencies that don’t disappear in a single week. When the opponent is already well known, there is less incentive to overcorrect offensively, and far more emphasis on repeating what worked defensively. The result is a second consecutive game that remains structurally suppressed in pace and scoring.

That dynamic is captured in this long-term Under system, which targets teams playing conference games with totals between 42.5 and 49 points after going more than 28 points Under the total in their previous game. Since 1983, the system is 34–10 (77.3%) to the Under with an average total of 45.3, generating +23 units and a 47.5% ROI. Games in this profile have averaged just 40.6 total points, with nearly half finishing at least a touchdown below the number. The angle carries added weight here, as Seattle’s previous game came against the same San Francisco opponent—a 13–3 defensive battle that stayed 31.5 points Under the total—reinforcing the expectation that familiarity, defensive confidence, and controlled game flow once again tilt this matchup toward the Under.


Drake Maye’s Passing Ceiling Keeps Rising

Drake Maye’s passing yards Over has emerged as one of the most reliable player prop trends of the season, driven by a clear and sustained leap in quarterback efficiency. In all games this year, Drake Maye is 14–4–0 to the Over on his passing yards total, cashing at a 77.8% hit rate with an average price of -112. That production has translated into +9.5 units of profit and a strong +47.0% ROI. On a per-game basis, Maye is averaging 259 passing yards against an average posted total of just 234 yards, outperforming the market by a meaningful +25 yards per game.

The underlying reason is not volume alone, but efficiency. Maye’s development has been dramatic across every key passing metric, including a 72% completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, and 31 touchdown passes. Those numbers reflect an offense that is staying on schedule, creating explosive plays, and finishing drives through the air rather than protecting leads or throttling back. As a result, the market has been slow to fully adjust to Maye’s true passing profile, continuing to post yardage totals that lag behind his current baseline. Until pricing consistently accounts for his improved accuracy, downfield efficiency, and aggressive scoring role, the Over remains structurally supported rather than matchup-dependent.


Miami Hurricanes Logo
Miami Defense Silences Elite Offenses

Against top-tier offenses, the Miami Hurricanes defense has been the defining factor in their recent surge. Since the 2024 season, Miami is a perfect 7–0 ATS in away or neutral-site games versus teams averaging 34 or more points per game, covering an average line of -2.4 while generating +7.0 units of profit (90.9% ROI). Despite facing explosive opponents, those teams have been held to just 19.0 points per game on average, underscoring Miami’s ability to dictate tempo, eliminate chunk plays, and force offenses out of rhythm. This trend reflects a defense that travels well and scales up against quality competition, allowing Miami’s offense to play from positions of control rather than needing to chase high-variance shootouts.

Seattle Seahawks Logo
Seattle’s Slow Starts in Front of "12th Man"

Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks have built a reputation for resilience and late-game competitiveness, but that toughness has often come at the expense of fast starts—especially against quality offenses. In home games versus teams averaging 24 or more points per game, Seattle is 0–7 ATS in the first half, failing to cover an average 1H line of -0.5 and producing a net loss of -7.7 units. The core issue has been offensive stagnation early, with Seattle averaging just 6.1 first-half points while opponents jump out to 15.1 on average. Even with the “12th Man” advantage, conservative early scripting and difficulty matching offensive tempo have consistently left the Seahawks playing from behind at the break, making this a structurally repeatable first-half fade rather than a short-term anomaly.

Betting Intelligence Starts Here

StatSharp Pro delivers advanced data, ratings, and insights that help you understand games more clearly—so you can think smarter, not chase picks.

Stay Connected with StatSharp

Follow us on social media for the latest sports analytics, data insights, and updates.

StatSharp, LLC | 777 N. Jefferson Street Suite 408 #1138 | Milwaukee, WI 53202 US

Please don't reply to this e-mail. You've been sent this message because you signed up at StatSharp.com or previously at one of our our predecessor sites StatFox/FoxSheets. If you don't wish to receive these types of emails, then follow the link to Unsubscribe. You can adjust your E-mail Preferences here.

Advanced Sports Betting Analytics

Subscribe to our email list and stay ahead of the game with cutting-edge analytics, insider trends, and actionable stats you won’t find anywhere else.