Key Betting Trends

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When a home team heads into a top-tier showdown riding a three-game (or more) winning streak, the betting value speaks for itself. Since 2020, these situations have yielded a 69-30 (69.7%) record with an average closing line around -5, delivering an impressive +36 units of profit and a 33.1% ROI. Scoring margins also favor the home side, with typical outcomes landing around 32.6 to 23.0. This season’s 13-6 tally (+6.4 units) keeps the trend strong—most notably for teams like Notre Dame—making these high-level, home-field scenarios a potent angle for bettors to capitalize on.

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When SMU hits the road or takes the field at a neutral site outside their conference, the Under has been a flawless play. Since 2022, these games have finished below the total in all seven matchups, averaging a combined final score of about 49 points against an over/under of 63.4. With a spotless 7-0 record (+7.0 units, 90.9% ROI), this trend has consistently rewarded bettors who back the Under in SMU’s non-conference road or neutral site contests.

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Dabo Swinney’s Clemson squads have consistently rewarded bettors after stringing together at least one previous ATS victory, especially away from home. Since he took the helm, these away or neutral games have hit at a remarkable 74% clip (39-14), yielding a healthy +23.6 units and a 40.5% ROI. With an average scoring margin of about two touchdowns (35.2 to 20.1) against an average line of -8, backers have found a profitable edge whenever the Tigers hit the road following a win against the spread.

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When Tennessee takes the field with two or more weeks of rest, the first-half Under has been a perfect 6-0 since 2022. With an average total set at 26.5, these games have opened at a slower pace than expected, producing a combined first-half score of just 16.3 points (10.8 for Tennessee and 5.5 for opponents). This trend has delivered +6.0 units and a 90.9% ROI, making early Unders a profitable angle in well-rested Volunteer matchups.

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Get More Trends

Featured Simulation

The simulator projects a closely contested playoff battle when Tennessee faces Ohio State. Offensively, Tennessee’s rushing attack is expected to generate steady yardage, with around 170–190 yards on the ground behind an efficient offensive line and versatile backfield. Ohio State’s passing game should stand out, averaging well over 250 yards through the air thanks to accurate quarterback play and a receiving corps capable of stretching the field. The first half figures to be tight, but Ohio State’s balanced offense may gradually open a lead. Ultimately, the simulation suggests a final score within one or two possessions, with turnovers and red-zone efficiency likely deciding the outcome.

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Bowl and CFP Playoff Simulations

CFP Injury Report

Below is the latest injury update for key starters on the CFP Playoff teams ahead of this weekend’s expanded postseason matchups. While some contenders enter with clean bills of health, others face significant personnel challenges that may influence their offensive and defensive output. For those looking for an edge, these updates highlight players whose statuses remain in flux.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame (12/20/2024):

• Indiana (RB Lee Beebe, SO): Out (Personal). Beebe was a critical part of the Hoosiers’ ground game, logging 885 rushing yards at 5.3 yards per attempt with 7 TDs, plus an additional 219 receiving yards. His absence removes a versatile weapon who consistently moved the chains.
• Indiana (DB Jamier Johnson, JR): Doubtful (Undisclosed). With 34 tackles this season, Johnson contributed to limiting big plays. If he can’t go, the Hoosiers’ secondary depth will be tested against Notre Dame’s balanced attack.
• Notre Dame (RB Jeremiyah Love, SO): Questionable (Leg). Love’s 949 rushing yards at a stellar 7.1 yards per carry and 15 TDs make him a game-changing back. A diminished role or absence could hinder Notre Dame’s offensive rhythm.

SMU vs. Penn State (12/21/2024):

• SMU (DE Elijah Roberts, SR): Out (Hand). Roberts tallied 5 sacks and 7 TFLs, anchoring a disruptive defensive front. Losing him weakens the Mustangs’ pass rush and run containment against Penn State’s balanced offense.
• Penn State (WR Kyron Ware-Hudson, JR): Out (Personal). Ware-Hudson’s 462 receiving yards and 3 TDs made him a reliable target. His absence narrows the Nittany Lions’ receiver rotation.
• Penn State (WR Harrison Wallace, JR): Questionable (Undisclosed). With 638 yards receiving at 16.4 yards per catch, Wallace’s availability could shape Penn State’s vertical passing threat.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State (12/21/2024):

• Tennessee (WR Squirrel White, JR): Questionable (Arm). White’s production (364 yards, 2 TDs) provides steady mid-range receiving options.
• Tennessee (RB Cameron Seldon, SO): Doubtful (Transfer Portal). Seldon’s 5.1 YPC adds change-of-pace efficiency.
• Tennessee (TE Cole Harrison, FR): Questionable (Undisclosed). Though without current receiving stats, Harrison’s potential availability boosts formation flexibility.
• Tennessee (WR Bru McCoy, SR): Questionable (Undisclosed). With 432 yards and 2 TDs, McCoy’s status leaves Tennessee’s receiver corps uncertain.

No Major Reported Injuries: Oregon, Georgia, Texas, Boise State, Arizona State, Clemson.

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Complete NCAA Injury Report