🏈2025 FBS Season Preview

What Changed for the Top 25

Texas opens at No. 1 with Arch Manning finally QB1, and the Longhorns will look different around him. The offense replaces a swath of NFL departures and portal exits at receiver, so Manning’s rapport with a rebuilt WR room is the fulcrum of their title bid. The good news: Texas brings back seven defensive starters and still looks mean up front. Expect Colin Simmons and Ethan Burke to headline a pass rush that must carry September while the offense gels.

Ohio State (No. 3) is both familiar and new. Ryan Day turned the headset over to offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, who’ll call plays, and hired ex-Patriots DC Matt Patricia to run the defense. The Buckeyes also hand the keys to first-time starter Julian Sayin, while adding West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson to split backfield work with James Peoples. That’s a lot of change for a roster that returns only three defensive starters—so early composure matters.

Clemson (No. 4) leans into continuity—with a twist. Cade Klubnik returns to an offense that now leans on a deep tight end room and a steadier OL, but the biggest addition is on defense: Dabo Swinney tabbed former Indiana head coach Tom Allen as defensive coordinator. Clemson brings back an ACC-leading amount of experience (17 starters), and the front anchored by Peter Woods and TJ Parker can be nasty. If Allen’s aggressive pressures translate, Clemson’s floor rises in a big way.

💰Week One Betting Insights

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Bet against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season, in weeks 0-3. Record: 49-17 (74.2%) since 1992

This long-running system shows that teams ending one season on a hot streak often stumble when laying points on the road early the next year. Since 1992, fading road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in weeks 0–3, coming off three or more straight wins and a winning prior season, has gone 49-17 ATS (74.2%), good for +30.3 units and a 41.7% ROI. The logic is simple—momentum from the previous year rarely carries through an offseason, and inflated early lines often overvalue last year’s finish. In Monday’s matchup, that points squarely at value on North Carolina and their new coach Bill Belichick as a home dog against TCU.

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TCU/UNC Betting Systems

Since 1992, simply backing Ohio State against the spread has been a profitable long-term strategy, regardless of opponent or circumstance. With a 233-179 ATS record (57%) over more than three decades, the Buckeyes have consistently outperformed market expectations, covering by grinding down opponents with elite talent and depth. The average line of -14.8 hasn’t slowed them, as their dominance translates into an average score of 34.2 to 17.0, proving that even as heavy favorites, Ohio State has delivered steady returns. This enduring trend shows how the Buckeyes’ brand of power football has historically rewarded bettors who just ride them every week.

Under Kirby Smart, Georgia has dominated the scoreboard but struggled to cover massive numbers as heavy home favorites. Since 2017, the Bulldogs are just 7-24 ATS (23%) when laying 21.5 points or more, despite an average margin of victory of 43.0 to 12.6. With an average line of -36.0, Georgia often pulls starters early and eases off the gas once the game is in hand, leaving backdoor covers wide open for opponents. For bettors, this long-standing pattern highlights how a powerhouse program can still burn tickets when oddsmakers inflate spreads beyond realistic margins.

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Despite often being priced as favorites in Lexington, Kentucky has failed to reward money line backers in recent home games. Since 2023, the Wildcats are just 1-7 straight up in lined home contests (games with a money line posted), losing -9.3 units for a brutal -42.1% ROI. With an average line of -147.5, Kentucky has been unable to finish off competitive matchups in front of its own fans, as opponents have repeatedly flipped the script in tight games. This negative pattern highlights how home-field advantage hasn’t translated to money line value for the Wildcats.

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