🏈⭑New and Innovative - Player Prop Stats & Trends

StatSharp Releases NFL Player Prop Stats and Betting Analytics

We’re excited to announce a brand-new addition for StatSharp Pro subscribers — Player Prop Betting Stats and Records. This feature highlights the top performing and most profitable player props by game across offense, defense, and special teams. From passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and reception props to tackles, sacks, and field goals, you can quickly see which props have delivered the strongest returns, along with posted lines, hit rates, ROI, and trend details.

Player props are one of the fastest-growing betting markets, but actionable data has always been hard to find. By surfacing only the most profitable props for each game, StatSharp gives you a clear view of where the real betting value has been — helping you spot patterns, avoid traps, and make smarter wagers this season. Explore the new section today and put our unique prop analytics to work for you.

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💰Week 1 Player Prop Report

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KCC TE Travis Kelce has quietly become one of the most reliable “under” plays in the player prop market. Since 2021, Kelce has gone 45-22-0 to the Under on receptions props, cashing at a 67.2% clip with a strong +20.6 units of profit (ROI +26.5%). While he remains a future Hall of Famer, age has begun to slow his production, and opposing defenses have keyed on him even more with Kansas City’s wide receiver injuries. The result: Kelce averages just 5.9 catches per game against an average posted line of 6.2, showing how sportsbooks often overvalue his volume. Bettors who recognize the market’s tendency to price Kelce by reputation rather than current reality have consistently found value in fading his reception totals.

MIA WR Tyreek Hill has been a surprisingly strong under trend in the receiving yards market, going 13-4-0 to the Under since the 2024 season for a 76.5% hit rate and +8.6 units of profit (ROI +44.4%). While his explosive reputation often drives lofty posted lines, Hill has averaged just 41.6 yards per game compared to an average O/U of 67.1 — falling short by more than 25 yards. A big factor has been Miami’s inconsistent quarterback play and recurring injuries, which have limited Hill’s opportunities to stretch the field. Sportsbooks continue to inflate his totals based on name recognition, creating consistent value for bettors willing to fade the hype.

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Jaguars' WR Brian Thomas Jr. delivered one of the most profitable rookie prop trends in 2024, going 14-3-0 to the Over on receiving yards props and cashing at an impressive 82.4% rate. His explosive playmaking consistently outpaced oddsmaker expectations, as he averaged 75.4 yards per game against an average posted line of just 56.9 — a gap of nearly 19 yards. With +10.5 units of profit (ROI +52.6%), Thomas quickly proved that sportsbooks undervalued his role in Jacksonville’s offense, rewarding bettors who recognized his breakout potential early.

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Eagles LB Zack Baun became a defensive breakout star in 2024, turning his expanded role into one of the most profitable prop trends in football. Since the start of the 2023 season, Baun has gone 15-2-0 to the Over on tackles props, cashing at an incredible 88.2% rate and generating +12.6 units of profit (ROI +61.8%). After winning a starting role in the middle of Philadelphia’s defense, Baun logged more than triple his previous career high in defensive snaps and piled up 151 total tackles. Averaging 8.6 tackles per game against an average posted line of just 5.2, he consistently outperformed expectations, rewarding bettors who recognized his elevated workload early.

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📒Week 1 Trend & System Report

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Bet on - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - terrible defense from last season - allowed 5.7 or more yards/play, in weeks 1-3. Record: 25-7 (78.1%) since 2021

This contrarian system zeroes in on road underdogs that fielded a terrible defense the year before, allowing 5.7 or more yards per play. At first glance, it seems counterintuitive to back such shaky teams, but the data tells a different story. Since 2021, these squads are 25-7 ATS (78.1%) in the first three weeks of the season, with an average line of +5.7 and a remarkable +17.3 units gained. Nearly 38% of those covers have been by a touchdown or more, showing that early in the year, oddsmakers often undervalue their ability to compete.

The theory is that poor defensive teams don’t stand still. Offseason changes—new coordinators, draft picks, free agent signings, and schematic adjustments—tend to specifically target glaring weaknesses. By September, those upgrades often translate into sharper play before the market fully adjusts. This creates hidden value in taking ugly-looking road dogs that the public is quick to dismiss based on last season’s stats. In 2025, that spotlight falls on the New York Giants as they head into Washington.

San Francisco was one of the league’s most reliable fades on the road last season, going just 1-7 ATS (13%) with an average margin of defeat of more than 10 points. Despite being modestly priced at an average line of -0.6, the 49ers consistently underdelivered, averaging only 20.1 points while surrendering 30.4. The theory behind this skid is that their offense struggled to travel, while defensive breakdowns were magnified outside of their home environment. Until they prove capable of making the right adjustments away from San Francisco, the 49ers remain a risky bet on the road.

Team Trends - 49ers/Seahawks

For decades, the Giants have leaned on a conservative, defense-first identity that naturally drives games under lofty totals, especially when traveling. Since 1992, the Under is 48-28 (63%) in New York road contests with totals of 45.5 or higher, cashing +17.2 units for a 20.6% ROI. With an average combined score of just 45.1 points, these games showcase the Giants’ tendency to shorten possessions with run-heavy play-calling while relying on defense to keep things close, a formula that consistently suppresses scoring and punishes inflated Over numbers.

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Las Vegas has been a costly play in the first half of competitive road games, covering just once in their last nine tries as a short underdog since 2023 (1-8 ATS, 11%). With an average first-half score of 7.8 to 15.0, the Raiders consistently dig themselves into early holes, often forcing a pass-heavy comeback mode after halftime. The theory is that their offense takes too long to establish rhythm away from home, while their defense struggles to match the intensity of opponents out of the gate. In games expected to be close, this slow-start pattern makes the Raiders especially vulnerable before the break.

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