💰Week 1 Player Prop Report
Kelce’s Receptions Props Consistently Overpriced
KCC TE Travis Kelce has quietly become one of the most reliable “under” plays in the player prop market. Since 2021, Kelce has gone 45-22-0 to the Under on receptions props, cashing at a 67.2% clip with a strong +20.6 units of profit (ROI +26.5%). While he remains a future Hall of Famer, age has begun to slow his production, and opposing defenses have keyed on him even more with Kansas City’s wide receiver injuries. The result: Kelce averages just 5.9 catches per game against an average posted line of 6.2, showing how sportsbooks often overvalue his volume. Bettors who recognize the market’s tendency to price Kelce by reputation rather than current reality have consistently found value in fading his reception totals.
Hill’s Yardage Totals Falling Well Short of the Line
MIA WR Tyreek Hill has been a surprisingly strong under trend in the receiving yards market, going 13-4-0 to the Under since the 2024 season for a 76.5% hit rate and +8.6 units of profit (ROI +44.4%). While his explosive reputation often drives lofty posted lines, Hill has averaged just 41.6 yards per game compared to an average O/U of 67.1 — falling short by more than 25 yards. A big factor has been Miami’s inconsistent quarterback play and recurring injuries, which have limited Hill’s opportunities to stretch the field. Sportsbooks continue to inflate his totals based on name recognition, creating consistent value for bettors willing to fade the hype.
Thomas Jr. Smashes Rookie Receiving Yard Totals
Jaguars' WR Brian Thomas Jr. delivered one of the most profitable rookie prop trends in 2024, going 14-3-0 to the Over on receiving yards props and cashing at an impressive 82.4% rate. His explosive playmaking consistently outpaced oddsmaker expectations, as he averaged 75.4 yards per game against an average posted line of just 56.9 — a gap of nearly 19 yards. With +10.5 units of profit (ROI +52.6%), Thomas quickly proved that sportsbooks undervalued his role in Jacksonville’s offense, rewarding bettors who recognized his breakout potential early.
Baun Emerges as Tackle Machine for Eagles
Eagles LB Zack Baun became a defensive breakout star in 2024, turning his expanded role into one of the most profitable prop trends in football. Since the start of the 2023 season, Baun has gone 15-2-0 to the Over on tackles props, cashing at an incredible 88.2% rate and generating +12.6 units of profit (ROI +61.8%). After winning a starting role in the middle of Philadelphia’s defense, Baun logged more than triple his previous career high in defensive snaps and piled up 151 total tackles. Averaging 8.6 tackles per game against an average posted line of just 5.2, he consistently outperformed expectations, rewarding bettors who recognized his elevated workload early.